Abstract: A method was proposed to determine the proportion between long-term and short-term procurement for raw material based on similar case analysis. Firstly， the current problems of determining the proportion between long-term and short-term procurement are regarded as the target case， and some collected problems of proportion determination and the adopted procurement proportion programs in history are taken as the historical cases. Then， the similar historical cases are extracted by calculating the similarities between the target case and the historical cases. Furthermore， the utility of implementation effects for the procurement proportion program with regard to each similar historical case is calculated， and the better similar historical cases are screened by setting the utility threshold. On this basis， the current proportion program can be determined according to the screened similar historical cases. Finally， an empirical analysis is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.

Key words: raw material procurement, long-term procurement, short-term procurement, procurement proportion, similar case analysis